Weltwirtschaftskrise 2.0

  • In meinem Geburtsort sieht es ähnlich aus, früher florierende Innenstädte voller Leben, heute alles dicht, nur noch Wettbüros, Spielhallen, Pfandleihen.


  • In den Reaktionen/Kommentaren, arbeiten die ganz klar das Problem auf, es sind die Ausländer: zu viel, zu ausländisch, zu wenig integriert.


    (ich möchte hier nicht etwa vermitteln, dass ich diese Position teile, ich fand es nur erschreckend, wie irgendwelche Armen anderen Armen die Schuld zuschieben)

  • https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/1…demand-stirs-caution.html


    Zitat

    Oil rises to multi-month highs on Russian supply concerns


    Die Begründung wurde ich doch etwas in Zweifel ziehen:


    Zitat

    Oil prices rose to multi-month highs for the second straight session on Tuesday, as traders assessed how Ukraine's recent attacks on Russian refineries would affect global petroleum supplies.

    Zitat

    Ukraine has stepped up attacks on Russian oil infrastructure this year, with at least seven refineries targeted by drones just this month. The attacks have shut down 7%, or around 370,500 barrels per day, of Russian refining capacity, Reuters calculations show.


    Wie stark die Beeinträchtigungen sind, lässt sich meines Erachtens nicht so gut einschätzen. Aber vorallem gibt es seit Monaten eine Beeinträchtigung, die Blockade des Roten Meeres, auf die die Märkte überhaupt nicht groß reagiert haben. Der Ölpreis ist unten geblieben. Also vielleicht sind diese Mutmaßungen über zu erwartende Einschränkung von russischem Ölexport der Anlass, aber insofern das über Verfügbarkeit und/oder Transportpreise kommt, wird hier eine Anpassung vermutlich nachgeholt.


    Achso, der Punkt ist natürlich nicht so gut für die Inflationsaussichten.

  • Das letzte Bankrettungsprogramm des Federal Reserve System wurde vor anderthalb Monaten eingestellt:


    https://www.federalreserve.gov…-term-funding-program.htm


    Zitat

    Bank Term Funding Program


    The Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) was created to support American businesses and households by making additional funding available to eligible depository institutions to help assure banks have the ability to meet the needs of all their depositors. [...]


    The BTFP ceased extending new loans on March 11, 2024.


    Gestern:


    https://www.reuters.com/busine…p-wsj-reports-2024-04-26/


    Zitat

    US regulators seize troubled lender Republic First, sell it to Fulton Bank


    April 26 (Reuters) - U.S. regulators have seized Republic First Bancorp (FRBK.PK) and agreed to sell it to Fulton Bank, underscoring the challenges facing regional banks a year after the collapse of three peers.

  • https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/0…e-at-risk-of-failure.html


    Zitat

    Why hundreds of U.S. banks may be at risk of failure


    Hundreds of small and regional banks across the U.S. are feeling stressed.


    "You could see some banks either fail or at least, you know, dip below their minimum capital requirements," Christopher Wolfe, managing director and head of North American banks at Fitch Ratings, told CNBC.


    Bekannte Probleme:


    Zitat

    Consulting firm Klaros Group analyzed about 4,000 U.S. banks and found 282 banks face the dual threat of commercial real estate loans and potential losses tied to higher interest rates.


    Wobei die Leute hinter dieser Analyse sagen Stress nicht unmittelbar bevorstehender Bankrott:


    Zitat

    "Most of these banks aren't insolvent or even close to insolvent. They're just stressed," Brian Graham, co-founder and partner at Klaros Group, told CNBC. "That means there'll be fewer bank failures. But it doesn't mean that communities and customers don't get hurt by that stress."

  • Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers von Biden - darf der so rumstammeln?


    https://twitter.com/FindingMon…tatus/1786050601236779078


  • Weiteres Sorgenkind:


    Japan hat deutliche Probleme mit seiner Währung. [...]


    https://www.bloomberg.com/news…-intervention-in-fed-week


    Zitat

    Japan Likely Spent About $23 Billion in Latest Yen Intervention


    • Bank of Japan accounts point to second intervention this week
    • Tokyo likely to stay mum for now to keep market players wary

    The BOJ reported Thursday that its current account will probably fall ¥4.36 trillion due to fiscal factors on the next business day of Tuesday. That compares with the ¥833 billion average forecast by money brokers of what the number would be without intervention


    -1x-1.png


    Die beiden starken Bewegungen sind vermutete Interventionen, um den Yen zu stützen.


    Zitat

    The latest swing in the yen follows a similarly sudden jump on Monday. Central bank accounts suggested Monday’s move was likely an intervention by Tokyo worth around ¥5.5 trillion, close to the daily record of ¥5.6 trillion set in October 2022.


    Einer der Gründe, warum Biden die Japaner vermutlich nicht dissen sollte -


    Zitat

    Biden calls US ally Japan ‘xenophobic’ along with India, Russia and China


    - die kaufen noch US-Staatsanleihen. Vermutlich mehr als gut für ihre Wirtschaft ist.


    https://www.reuters.com/market…bble-mcgeever-2024-05-01/


    Zitat

    If Japan exhausts intervention slush fund, Treasuries may wobble


    ORLANDO, Florida, May 2 (Reuters) - Japan's yen-buying currency market intervention may not be sending tremors through the U.S. bond market just yet, but that calm could be disturbed if Tokyo gets drawn into a drawn-out battle to prevent the exchange rate from weakening much further.

    Zitat
    Japan has a pretty deep pool of dollar deposits it can dip into to buy yen, but it is not limitless. If it is drained, bond investors may reasonably wonder whether Japan, the world's largest overseas holder of Treasuries, will turn to selling U.S. bonds.
    Zitat

    Tokyo would likely consider other options to support the yen if need be - steps to encourage repatriation, tighter monetary policy, tapping currency swap lines with the Fed, accessing funds from other sources - before outright U.S. bond sales.


    But it's a tail risk.

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