Weltwirtschaftskrise 2.0

Zitat von Wemir

Nebenbei wir sind gerade in einer "AI sell-off"-Phase:

Das schwächste Glied in der Kette scheint mir weiterhin Südkorea zu sein:

https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10824514

Zitat

Kospi crashes below 5,300 as sell-off intensifies

Benchmark tumbles nearly 13%, triggering circuit breaker for second straight day

South Korean stocks extended their historic sell-off Wednesday: The Kospi once plunged nearly 13 percent to below 5,300 and triggered a circuit breaker for a second straight day amid heavy selling by retail and foreign investors.

https://www.reuters.com/world/…everaged-etfs-2026-07-29/

Zitat

Top South Korean policy makers apologise for single-stock leveraged ETFs

SEOUL, July 29 (Reuters) - Top South Korean policy makers apologised on Wednesday over the introduction of single-stock leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have been blamed for ‌intensifying a rout in the country's stock market.

Zusammen mit dem Druck auf den Yen:

https://www.theguardian.com/wo…nt-plan-liz-truss-economy

Zitat

Can Japan avoid a Liz Truss-style shock as its PM embarks on a giant spending spree?

Sanae Takaichi’s blueprint to inject £1.7tn and double economic growth leaves many investors fearful

Eine häufige Einschätzung ist, dass die Usis ihre KI-Spekulationsblase nicht gegen eine neue Asienkrise verteidigen werden können.

Zitat von Wemir

Zusammen mit dem Druck auf den Yen:

Nachdem die Japaner jetzt schon eine Weile ohne wirklichen Erfolg versuchen den Yen zu stützen (also inoffiziell), probieren es die Usis mal:

https://www.ft.com/content/0f9…e4-4f5f-b49e-93ccb5da9ea8

Zitat

US Treasury undertakes historic intervention in yen market

New York Fed sells euros to buy yen following recent speculation that Tokyo intervened to support Japan’s currency

The US Treasury intervened in yen exchange rates on Friday, marking the first time Tokyo and Washington joined forces to support the Japanese currency via outright purchases in nearly 30 years.

Auch dieses "leak" ist so schön arrangiert und fotografiert, dass es vermutlich für die Märkte inszeniert würde:

https://twitter.com/unusual_wh…tatus/2083373176948703263

Zitat

BREAKING: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's visible "to-do" list at Camp David revealed a proposal for the U.S. to buy $5 billion to $10 billion worth of Japanese yen, per Reuters.

https://www.reuters.com/world/…et-ft-reports-2026-08-01/

Zitat

A Reuters photo of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's notepad during a cabinet meeting at Camp David in Maryland showed the words "To Do," ⁠followed by "Buy Japanese Yen (JPY) $5-10 bil."

Die Japaner halten weiter die meisten US-Staatsanleihen. Insofern wollen die Usis nicht, dass sie den Bestand weiter abbauen.

https://ticdata.treasury.gov/r…Documents/slt_table5.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news…t-may-be-limited-jpm-says

Zitat

US Treasury’s Firepower for Yen Support May Be Limited, JPM Says

The US Treasury has limited liquid resources to support further coordinated currency intervention alongside Japan, though its firepower could be expanded substantially if officials resort to more extraordinary measures, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Extraordinary measures?

Zitat

JPMorgan says the Treasury could materially expand that firepower by converting its holdings of International Monetary Fund Special Drawing Rights, or SDRs, and swapping foreign-currency assets into dollars. Under that scenario, the Treasury could theoretically mobilize as much as $187 billion, while participation by the Federal Reserve could effectively double the size of any intervention.

Hört sich jetzt noch nicht nach verzweifelten Maßnahmen an, mehr so als würde man anfangen seine strategische Erdölreserve zu leeren.

Zitat von Wemir

https://www.ft.com/content/0f9…e4-4f5f-b49e-93ccb5da9ea8

Zitat

New York Fed sells euros to buy yen following recent speculation that Tokyo intervened to support Japan’s currency

Das mit den Euros wirft neue Fragen auf:

Zitat

US euro sale to prop up yen blindsided ECB

Christine Lagarde and Scott Bessent spoke only after Washington’s historic intervention

Washington’s sale of euros to boost the yen late last week blindsided the European Central Bank, with the US only informing its counterparts in Frankfurt after the historic currency intervention.

Zitat

The lack of co-ordination highlights the unusual nature of the first joint Washington-Tokyo effort to boost the yen in almost 30 years. Typically, the US would have been expected to use dollars in such an operation.

Das wäre natürlich kontraproduktiv, da die Intervention aus Sicht der Usis doch sehr wahrscheinlich verhindern soll, dass die Japaner US-Anleihen abstoßen, weil damit die Rendite, die sie zahlen müssen weiter steigen würde. Aus dem gleichen Grund wollen sie US-Dollar nicht weiter abschwächen, aktuell ist der durch den Erdöl-Preis ja etwas gestärkt worden. Ergo gibt man Euro raus.

Das ist allerdings ein unfreundlicher Akt:

Zitat

Some senior ECB officials viewed the US decision to use euros in its trade as an unprecedented breach of longstanding conventions on co-operation between western monetary authorities, the people said.

Since the second world war, western central banks and finance ministries have stressed mutual trust and consultation, with previous interventions in currency markets usually happening in a co-ordinated manner.

Washington’s sales of euros, carried out by the New York Federal Reserve on behalf of the US Treasury, were “very striking” and “sad”, one person familiar with discussions among European policymakers told the FT.

“This has never happened before,” they added, saying that decades of close co-operation between western central banks that fostered financial stability and economic growth may have come under threat.

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"sad"

Wann lernen die endlich, dass die Usis der Feind sind.