Vielleicht lernt er noch was.
China [Sammelthread]
-
-
https://www.reuters.com/world/…olicy-support-2024-04-16/
ZitatChina's economy grew faster than expected in the March quarter
Glücklicherweise muss man sich nicht grämen, Bloomberg und Wall Street Journal eilen zur Rettung:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news…growth-driven-by-industry
ZitatChinese Economy’s Strong Start to 2024 Is Already Fading
- GDP grew at above-forecast 5.3% pace in first quarter
- But other data leave economists saying more stimulus needed
https://www.wsj.com/world/chin…ready-backfiring-86f29e4a
ZitatChina’s Overcapacity Is Already Backfiring
Excess investment in industry isn’t made up by trading partners, and it has domestic consequences
-
...
Worauf Ich hinaus möchte ist ja das den USA ganz klar ist das dies ein Schlüssel fur ihre Vormachtsstellung ist, und das sie selbstverständlich ASML in den Niderlanden und auch Zeiss Optiken kontrollieren um zu verhindern das China wirklich alles herstellen kann was es braucht....
Läuft übrigens super für ASML.
Hier ist einer für Nostradamus-Enthusiasten!
Was passierte mit den Geschäftsergebnissen von ASML, als die nicht mehr nach China exportieren durften?
-
-
https://www.berliner-zeitung.d…e-kriegs-geben-li.2207104
ZitatDie Botschaft ist klar: Wer Europa in der Ukraine-Frage eint, qualifiziert sich als Pekings Partner im Friedensprozess. Denn wichtiger als Paris und Berlin gegeneinander auszuspielen, ist Peking ein Europa, das sich gegenüber den USA selbstbewusster zeigt. Und Xis Botschaft zeigt noch etwas. Ob der Westen es gut findet oder nicht: Frieden ohne Peking wird es in der Ukraine nicht geben.
Auch sonst ganz netter Text. Und habe erst am Ende gesehen dass von Sieren. Aber hätte ich mir denken können, weil nur noch wenige wie er darauf verzichten irgendwelche reißerischen Positionen zu pushen.
-
Läuft übrigens super für ASML.
https://www.theregister.com/20…slump_40_percent_q1_2024/
ZitatNot mentioned at all is the possibility of further export restrictions, which are likely as the US tries to curb China’s semiconductor advances and leans on its allies to fall in line.
However, with all the new chip plants being built outside China, ASML seems optimistic, and still expects to reach annual revenue in 2025 of between €30 billion ($31.9 billion) and €40 billion ($42.3 billion).
"I think we will find ourselves in 2025 in the midst of the upturn," said Dassen. "If you just look at all the fab openings that have been indicated by our customers. The recent news on positive outcomes of CHIPS Act money allocation. All of that is very strong, very supportive for new fab openings across the globe."
Hm, frage mich ob der demonstrierte Optimismus sich wirklich auf Halbleiterfabriken außerhalb von China bezieht - vielleicht nur eine Interpretation des Artikelautors - oder ASML einfach die Erwartung hat, dass es trotz der Sanktionen einen Umgehungshandel für ihre Maschinen geben wird mit China als Endkunde.
https://www.tomshardware.com/t…y-to-reach-record-heights
ZitatChina to lead semiconductor industry expansion with 18 new fabs in 2024 —global chipmaking capacity to reach record heights
China builds more new fabs than other countries.
Drei sollen es 2024 in den USA sein, wenn der Termin gehalten werden kann (und nichts schneller eröffnet wird), gab ja schon Berichte über Verzögerungen:
https://techovedas.com/where-a…-in-north-america-europe/
Location Fab Name Owner Completion Date Nodes Arizona Fab 52 Intel 2024 7 nm Arizona Fab 62 Intel 2024 7 nm Arizona Fab 21 TSMC 2025 3 nm, 5 nm Texas Taylor Fab Samsung 2024 5 nm Texas Sherman Fab Texas Instruments 2025 28 nm Ohio Ohio Fabs (1-2) Intel 2025 10 nm New York Clay Fab Micron Technology TBD DRAM New York Fab 8.2 GlobalFoundry 2025 Feature-rich New York Massey Fab Wolfspeed 2022 Silicon Carbide Idaho Boise Fab Micron 2025 DRAM Florida Palm Bay Fab Rogue Valley Microdevices, Inc. 2025 MEMS, sensors -
Nicht gelesen, aber das machen Staaten eigentlich immer.
Der Witz ist wieviel davon von den USA motiviert wird. Ohne die Planung China mit dem Hebel Taiwan irgendwie zu destabilisieren, gäbe es vielleicht Yi Dai Yi Lu (Neue Seidenstraße) nicht in dieser Dimension und eventuell hätten die Chinesen auch nicht die gleiche Notwendigkeit gesehen, eine so enge Allianz mit Russland einzugehen. -
https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr1096
ZitatAlles anzeigenFederal Reserve Bank of New York
Staff Reports
Geopolitical Risk and Decoupling: Evidence from U.S. Export Controls
Number 1096April 2024
Authors:
Matteo Crosignani, Lina Han, Marco Macchiavelli, and André F. Silva
ZitatAmid the current U.S.-China technological race, the U.S. has imposed export controls to deny China access to strategic technologies. We document that these measures prompted a broad-based decoupling of U.S. and Chinese supply chains. Once their Chinese customers are subject to export controls, U.S. suppliers are more likely to terminate relations with Chinese customers, including those not targeted by export controls. However, we find no evidence of reshoring or friend-shoring. As a result of these disruptions, affected suppliers have negative abnormal stock returns, wiping out $130 billion in market capitalization, and experience a drop in bank lending, profitability, and employment.Laut dieser Studie ist das Ergebnis der US-Sanktionen in einer Reihe von Technikbereichen, vorallem natürlich Mikroelektronik, dass US-Zulieferer die Beziehung zu ihren chinesischen Kunden kappen, inklusive solchen die noch nicht Sanktionen unterliegen, die entsprechenden Auswirkungen auf ihre Geschäfte spüren, aber diese Kunden noch nicht ersetzen konnten:
https://www.newyorkfed.org/med…/staff_reports/sr1096.pdf
ZitatAlles anzeigenDespite export controls achieving their main purpose of reducing transfers of U.S. goods
and technology to Chinese targets, we do not observe new supply chain relations formed
by U.S. firms with alternative customers located outside of China, nor specifically with
domestic ones. In other words, we do not find any evidence of friend-shoring or reshoring in
the three-year period following the imposition of export controls. The inability of affected
suppliers to quickly find alternative customers may therefore harm the very same firms whose
technology U.S. export controls are trying to protect. Thus, we explore the financial and real
effects of export controls on the affected U.S. suppliers and document significant collateral
damage.
-
Blinken kommt nach China, also wird klassisch in die Druckmittelkiste gegriffen:
https://www.reuters.com/world/…ad-china-visit-2024-04-22
ZitatBlinken says genocide in Xinjiang is ongoing in report ahead of China visit
WASHINGTON, April 22 (Reuters) - Beijing is continuing to commit genocide and crimes against humanity against Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities in its western Xinjiang province, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a report published on Monday, ahead of his planned visit to China this week.
The State Department's annual human rights report, which documents abuses recorded all over the world during the previous calendar year, repeated language from previous years on the treatment of Muslims in Xinjiang, but the publication raises the issue ahead of delicate talks, including on the war in Ukraine and global trade, between the top U.S. diplomat and Chinese counterparts.
Weiß nicht, warum sie sich überhaupt die Mühe machen, aber ich schätze going through the motions.
-
"one China policy" heißt bei der US-Handelsministerin, dass alles was an nützlichen Sachen aus Taiwan - also Inselchina - kommt, "uns" - also den USA - gehört, und nichts mit Festlandchina zu tun hat.
-
https://twitter.com/SecBlinken/status/1783150721736569131
Merkwürdiges Touristenvideo.
Global Times vorab zu den "significant disagreements":
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202404/1311035.shtml
ZitatUS ratchets up pressure on China ahead of Blinken visit in typical hegemonic approach
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will reportedly warn that Washington will take punitive steps against Beijing over its "weapon-related exports to Russia" during his visit scheduled this week. Observers said the rhetoric, in addition to the recent hype of "overcapacity" regarding exports of Chinese new energy product and numerous restrictions slapped on Chinese high-tech industries, shows that the US has been ratcheting up pressure on China in a wider range of military, economic and trade fields.
The recent bizarre narratives on China are all essentially disguises to justify the US weaponizing economic issues, in order to shift the blame away from the Biden administration's policy failures, analysts pointed out. While those moves are somewhat typical US tactics of aggression first and backing off later, analysts said the amassing of more Washington-instigated "negative factors" will create more discords in bilateral relations, which remain "extremely fragile" despite certain progress toward stabilization.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202404/1311109.shtml
ZitatChina slashes hypocritical move by US on Ukraine crisis ahead of Blinken’s visit, urging Washington to end blameshifting
China voiced the firm opposition to the hypocritical moves by the US on the Ukraine crisis by enacting massive aid bills for Ukraine while making baseless accusations against the normal trade between China and Russia, which will also be one of the major issues to be discussed during the upcoming visit of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to China.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202404/1311188.shtml
ZitatChina firmly opposes 'overcapacity' hype as speculation is unjustified: Chinese FM
China firmly opposes so-called "overcapacity" hype accused by some Western countries with the speculation wholly unjustified, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said on Wednesday, stressing that the world does not need China to reduce production, but rather more money and products to accelerate the energy transition and eradicate poverty.
-
Für die Erwartung in der chinesischen Wirtschaft, dass die "significant disagreements" nicht gelöst werden und es stattdessen zu einem schnellen Verfall der wirtschaftlichen Beziehungen kommen wird, spricht der Goldmarkt:
https://www.ft.com/content/cae…23-4cf4-bc80-349c5745b7ea
ZitatChinese speculators super-charge gold rally
Huge bullish bets on Shanghai exchanges show growing clout of Asian traders in market for precious metal
-
https://www.reuters.com/techno…l-sources-say-2024-04-25/
ZitatAlles anzeigenExclusive: ByteDance prefers TikTok shutdown in US if legal options fail, sources say
HONG KONG, April 25 (Reuters) - TikTok owner ByteDance would prefer to shut down its loss-making app rather than sell it if the Chinese company exhausts all legal options to fight legislation to ban the platform from app stores in the U.S., four sources said.
The algorithms TikTok relies on for its operations are deemed core to ByteDance's overall operations, which would make a sale of the app with algorithms highly unlikely, said the sources close to the parent.
TikTok accounts for a small share of ByteDance's total revenues and daily active users, so the parent would rather have the app shut down in the U.S. in a worst case scenario than sell it to a potential American buyer, they said.
Ich sehe auch nicht, dass die sich einen US-Konkurrenten schaffen wollen. Aber sehr wahrscheinlich würde spätestens die chinesische Regierung den Verkauf untersagen:
ZitatAlles anzeigenChina indicated it would be likely to reject a forced divestment of the TikTok app during a U.S. congressional hearing in March last year.
"China will firmly oppose it (the forced sale of TikTok)," said a spokeswoman for the Ministry of Commerce at a news conference in Beijing in late March 2023.
"The sale or divestiture of TikTok involves technology export and must go through administrative licensing procedures in accordance with Chinese laws and regulations."
China in 2020 unveiled the Export Control Law and the final text extended the definition of "controlled items" from prior drafts. According to state media, the amendment ensures that the exports of algorithms, source codes and similar data are subject to an approval process.
-
https://www.reuters.com/world/…y-yellen-says-2024-04-25/
ZitatNothing off the table in US response to China overcapacity, Yellen says
WASHINGTON, April 25 (Reuters) - The Biden administration is not taking any options off the table to respond to China's excess industrial capacity, which is a top concern for the U.S. and its allies, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told Reuters on Thursday.
China exporting its way to full employment is not acceptable to the rest of the world, Yellen said in a Reuters Next interview in Washington.
Genauer:
Zitat"We have no problem with China producing and selling globally and exporting, but the United States and Europe and other countries also want to have some involvement in the ability to produce clean energy products that are going to be of great importance," Yellen said.
Autsch "some".
Sie behauptet dann noch die Chinesen würden das einsehen:
ZitatYellen said that during her trip to China earlier this month, she was "successful" in raising U.S. concerns with Chinese officials about Beijing flooding global markets with electric vehicles (EVs), solar panels and other clean energy goods, threatening U.S. jobs. She added that Chinese officials acknowledge a problem with industrial overcapacity, but they needs to address it.
Aber an dieser angeblichen Anerkennung habe ich doch Zweifel.
Dachte erst "nothing off the table" bezieht sich auf mögliche Sanktionen, aber in diesem Bereich meint sie vermutlich protektionistische Maßnahmen:
ZitatYellen added that the problem will not be resolved "in a day or a week."
"So it's important that China recognize the concern and begin to act to address it," Yellen said. "But we don't want our industry wiped out in the meantime, so I wouldn't want to take anything off the table."
-
Aber an dieser angeblichen Anerkennung habe ich doch Zweifel.
"Anerkennung" als was denn eigentlich?
Dass die chinesische Industrie Exportüberschüsse einfährt ist weder eine Neuigkeit, sondern schon seit vielen Jahren der Fall, noch hat das irgendwen jemals dazu veranlasst, von den Regierungen anderer notorischer Exportüberschussländer - wie zum Beispiel, der ganz besonders dafür berüchtigten Überschussnation Deutschland - im freien Westen irgendeine Form von "Anerkennung" eines fürchterlichen Fehlverhaltens zu fordern.
Barack Obama hat die Merkel-Regierung zwar tatsächlich mal ein bisschen dafür gerügt, dass sie dem Erhalt der Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der eigenen Nationalökonomie noch vor den Belangen der europäischen und transatlantischen Partner oberste Priorität einräumte, aber auch dem war natürlich klar, dass es in einer Welt voller untereinander konkurrierender kapitalistischer Volkswirtschaften auch in der liberalen Demokratie die höchste Aufgabe der Staatsführung ist, das Fortkommen der eigenen Nation in dieser Konkurrenz voranzubringen.
Dass man den Chinesen daraus jetzt einen Vorwurf macht ist doch eine ganz offensichtliche und durchsichtige Propaganda für die amerikanische Heimatfront im Wahlkampf um das Präsidentenamt..
-
Blinken ist so ein verdammter Heuchler...
People don't realize just how dangerous this rhetoric is. This is in effect the US demanding China become hostile to Russia by stopping to supply items that "power its industrial base"... meaning asking China to join the West in trying to weaken Russia as a country. As a reminder this is exactly the reason why during WW2 Japan went to war with the US: the US at some point stopped supplying oil to Japan and this directly led to Pearl Harbor. Countries typically don't take it very constructively when you're trying to strangle them economically...
The worst part is that the only rational they give China for doing this is 100% stick and 0% carrot: "if you don't do this we in turn will be even more aggressive towards you than we've been to date". With of course, in the back of China's mind the knowledge that the US's calculus is that they want to be done with Russia in order to fully concentrate on containing them. So they're presenting China with a completely lose-lose proposition: be hostile to your neighbor now so we can contain you faster down the line, or don't be hostile to your neighbor and we'll ramp up our containment now. How attractive is that?
China will of course not start being hostile to Russia, in fact if anything this will convince them that the US is even more unhinged and unreasonable that they thought. [...]
...man fragt sich wirklich, wer - außer vielleicht unseren treudoofsten deutschen QualitätsjournalistInnen - dem noch irgendwas glaubt.
-
"Anerkennung" als was denn eigentlich?
Nun die USA wollen reindustrialisieren und fordern von den Chinesen im Prinzip, dass sie eher auf sowas wie den Schulden finanzierten Konsum setzen sollen, der bisher die US-Wirtschaft charakterisiert hat. Die Chinesen machen dabei nicht mit und investieren sogar vermehrt in Ausbau und Modernisierung ihrer industriellen Produktion (wie schonmal erwähnt dem Anschein nach haben sie Gelder aus der Immobilienblase dahin umgelenkt). Nehme an die "Überkapazität" ist Produktionskapazität über dem, was den Anteil abdecken würde, den ihnen die USA am Weltmarkt zugestehen.
Und natürlich erkennt China das framing, das ihnen die USA aufdrücken wollen, nicht an:
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202404/1311363.shtml
ZitatAlles anzeigen[Published: Apr 27, 2024 12:07 PM]
China refutes US’ false narrative on overcapacity, clarifies its stance on South China Sea during talks with Blinken
[...]
Yang [(director-general of the Department of North American and Oceanian Affairs of the China's Foreign Ministry)] said the Chinese side refuted the so-called "overcapacity" in China narrative claimed by the US, calling it another example of US' protectionism and suppression of China's development. [...]
-
Mir scheint eine gewisse Antwort auf Blinkens Drohungen ist das hier:
https://eng.mil.ru/en/news_pag…re.htm?id=12510542@egNews
ZitatAlles anzeigen26.04.2024 (12:45)
Russian Defence Minister meets with Chinese Defence Minister
Moscow-Beijing military interaction, joint operational and combat training of the servicemen of the two countries make a significant contribution to the maintenance of global and regional stability according to Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu.
'Russian-Chinese military cooperation is an important element in enhancing defence capabilities and maintaining global and regional stability. Joint operational and combat training is conducted regularly on the ground, in the sea and in the air, and training and combat missions are successfully practised at varying degrees of complexity,' said Shoigu during a working meeting with Chinese Minister of National Defense Dong Jun on Friday.
The talks took place within the meeting of the Ministers of Defence of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation member countries in Astana.
-
Natürlich:
https://www.reuters.com/world/…est-nato-says-2024-04-25/
ZitatChina must stop aiding Russia if it seeks good relations with West, NATO says
BERLIN, April 25 (Reuters) - China must stop supporting Russia's war in Ukraine if it wants to enjoy good relations with the West, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on Thursday, warning Beijing in unusually harsh words it cannot have it both ways.
Ah wie unschön, wir haben Stoltenberg nach Deutschland reingelassen, das hat er bei einer Rede für eine Veranstaltung der Atlantikbrücke gesagt:
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_224838.htm
ZitatAlles anzeigenRussia's friends in Asia are vital for its war effort.
First and foremost, China.
China is propping up Russia's war economy.
Sharing high-end technology like semi-conductors and other dual-use items with Russia.
Last year, Russia imported 90 percent of its micro-electronics from China.
Used to produce missiles, tanks, and aircraft.
China is also working to provide Russia with improved satellite capabilities and imagery.
All of this helps Moscow to inflict more death and destruction on Ukraine, bolster Russia's defence industrial base, and evade the impact of sanctions and export controls.
China says it wants good relations with the West.
At the same time, Beijing continues to fuel the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War Two.
They cannot have it both ways.
Also was die alle fordern, China muss Russland ebenfalls sanktionieren. Bin mir nicht mal sicher, warum sie das nicht einfach so sagen.
-
Wenn China keine Mikrochips mehr nach Russland verkauft, vermehren sich die ukrainischen Rekruten von ganz alleine.
Jetzt mitmachen!
Du hast noch kein Benutzerkonto auf unserer Seite? Registriere dich kostenlos und nimm an unserer Community teil!